I
heard a program on the radio (yes, there still is radio) the other day about
the current millennial generation choosing to have fewer children than their
parents had or no children at all. I don’t know if that is true or not but I
suspect it might be as this current generation is considered to be very
self-focused (selfish?) and not as tuned into procreation as their predecessors.
In
Canada, according to the 2016 census, for the first time in the
country’s history, the population has more seniors (16.9%) than children
(16.6%). The gap is expected to widen in the future.
Another
apparent trend is that people are waiting longer to have children –
particularly females – than was the case with their parent’s generation.
Fertility is declining. In Canada it is 1.6 children per woman (in the US it is
2.0 children per woman). The trends for most age groups, since the post-Second
World War years, is noticeably declining. This is true in the UK as well where
women who had turned 45 in 2016 had an average of 1.80 children compared to
2.21 for women who had turned 45 in 1944.
Some
analysts attribute the outcomes to increased housing costs and slower wage
growth that would certainly affect people’s abilities to raise a family. Job
security may also be a factor. Many readers of this will relate to the
difficulties their offspring have encountered in establishing themselves and
reaching economic security.
What
we are seeing may be unique in human history, where one generation decides not
to produce a subsequent generation, or produce fewer children such that their
own generation may not be replaced. It will be of especial consequence to
western civilization as there certainly appears to be families in other parts
of the world who have no problem with spitting out children one after the
other.
Older
people might be concerned about this trend as their own retirement and pension
programs may depend on there being a large workforce contributing to government
authorized retirement schemes.
Our
economy and well-being cannot continue without a healthy labour force paying
the bills through their taxes, particularly where social programs for seniors
are in place. For just the public-sector pension plans in Canada, the unfunded
liability that will be passed to future generations, with no additional people
added to the rolls, is already in excess of $300 billion. Many private
companies have fallen on hard times recently with the result that employee
pensions have been reduced or even scrapped. Bloomberg recently reported that
the pension plans of the 200 largest S&P 500 companies also are unfunded to
the tune of $382 billion.
For
most western nations, the answer will have to come from immigration. Families
of the future may look much different – certainly than they did in past
centuries. Besides being smaller they will undoubtedly have a greater mix of
cultures and races necessitated by the influx of people from all over the
world.
