Natural Disasters and Family Misfortunes: Jamestown Drought

Sometimes moving to new places in search of opportunity or a better life does not work out as well as people thought it might. As an example, a long-lasting drought probably had a major impact on the outcome of the early American colonies.

In 1585 new settlers came to Roanoke Island, in what is now North Carolina, to begin a new life. In 1607 Jamestown Colony, in what was to be Virginia, was established. 

According to a 1998 study, The Lost Colony and Jamestown Drought, the authors state that between 1587 and 1589, “. . . the Lost Colony of Roanoke Island disappeared during the most extreme drought in 800 years. . .” They also comment that between 1606 and 1612, “. . . the alarming mortality and the near abandonment of Jamestown Colony occurred during the driest 7-year episode in 770 years.” 

A map from the North American Drought Atlas for 1610 illustrates the area of the southeast part of the continent impacted by the drought. Maps are constructed using measurements of tree rings which are direct indications of periods of drought (red end of spectrum) or wet (blue end) conditions. http://drought.memphis.edu/NADA/MapDisplay.aspx 

Data collected from tree-ring measurements, as well as population and immigration estimates, in the region strongly suggest that mortality rates rose with increasing aridity (drought index).

The new settlers in America had the greatest bad luck to arrive at a time when drought in this region was widespread and possibly the worst it had been in centuries. Even considering threats from other sources, such as the potential conflict with the native population, it is no wonder the colonies failed.

Reference:

Stahle, David W., Malcolm K. Cleaveland, Dennis B. Blanton, Matthew D. Therrell & David A. Gay. (1998). The Lost Colony and Jamestown Droughts. Science, 280(5363), pp 564-567.

FamilySearch’s Full-Text Search Exploration Revisited

I wrote about FamilySearch’s Full-Text Search module on 15 July 2025 (FamilySearch Full-Text Search ... and other AI processes for reading old handwritten documents). In that post I described how FamilySearch is making major inroads to viewing old documents, providing valuable transcriptions of them, and expanding the abilities of family historians to find elusive ancestors. At that point the technique was still in the testing stage, part of a group of experimental programs.

Well, Full-Text Search has now gone mainstream. Searching scanned documents in their library for names and keywords for almost any subject is now a main category under the Search menu on the FamilySearch home webpage. To use the almost limitless capabilities of the FamilySearch resources you only need to register a free account.  

Hundreds of thousands of records from over 4,300 collections have been added to the inventory of searchable documents with more coming online regularly. Most importantly, non-indexed names and words can now be found, a major advancement in the hunt for family information.

Since I wrote my last blog post, I have wanted to do a bit more detailed looking at possible records of interest. This time I went looking for all mentions of our surname “shepheard” from the main home page search menu.

In all categories and in all places worldwide, the total hits for the name were 36,999. Most (19,158) were in records from the United Kingdom and Ireland with a close second for USA records (16,129). The other 1,712 references were from Africa (30), Asia & Middle East (3), Australia & New Zealand (1,192), Canada (446), Caribbean & Central America (15), Continental Europe (12), South America (2 and Other (24).

I selected the UK & Ireland regions, moved down to England (16,790 hits) and then down to Devon (3,203). That is the area where most of my Shepheard family originated. I could have further narrowed down the review in various specific Collections (15 of them), Centuries (1500 to 1900) and Record Types (59). These are summarized below.

Vital records, that is birth/baptism, marriage and death/burial entries, represent the largest proportion, as might be expected (2,212 hits, 69%). These are records that are most likely to be indexed.

Shepheard appears in records from 79 Devon parishes, most in the southern part of the county. Again, this would have been predicted as that is the region where the Shepheard families were most prevalent.

The images presented are of very good quality, many much better than the copies I obtained over the past few years from other sources. There are a few inconsistencies in the transcriptions as one might expect using old document. Some of the hits are different pages of the same collection but that does not dimmish their importance.

Restricting my search to a specific spelling, of course, meant that I missed seeing many individuals, but that can easily be remedied by doing more broadly defined searches. For different spellings one can substitute a ? for a letter.

So, a search for “sheph?rd” resulted in 2,216,970 hits (UK & Ireland = 285,409; USA = 1,806,249; England = 256,779; Devon = 12,927). And another search for “shep??rd” got 3,261,473 hits (UK & Ireland = 389,635; USA = 2,643,351; England = 344,944; Devon = 15,980). Both identified a much greater number of individuals in the primary regions of Devon.

The results of just this basic search for potential family members could lead to months if not years of work to review all the documents and look for possible relationships. Full-Test Search is truly a game changer.

And after my Shepheard ancestors I can look for other lines. For example, a search for Mayfield had 544,125 hits (UK & Ireland = 15,579; USA = 519,062; Maryland = 2,231; Baltimore = 729; 1800s = 301). This was the name of one of my 3^rd great-grandfather, who was born in England in 1778 and migrated to the USA around 1810.

Obviously, there is an infinite number of searches that could be done which could add interesting and valuable information to my whole family tree.

Following is a summary of the 3,203 Shepheard search results for Devon in terms of numbers by area, collections, centuries and record types:

Full-Text Filtered Search Results (3,203)

Place: Devon, England, United Kingdom and Ireland

Collections (15)

England, Devon, Employment, from 1741 to 1838 (29)

England, Devon, Legal, from 1300 to 1600 (23)

England, Devon, Properties, 1745 (25)

United Kingdom, Biographies, from 1963 to 2009 (1)

United Kingdom, England, Biographies, from 1860 to 1884 (15)

United Kingdom, England, Deaths, from 29 September 1589 to 9 April 1877 (753)

United Kingdom, England, Education, from 1828 to 1839 (110)

United Kingdom, England, Employment, from 1753 to 1795 (73)

United Kingdom, England, Legal, from 28 March 1842 to 25 March 1845 (1,545)

United Kingdom, England, Marriages, from 1813 to 1868 (534)

United Kingdom, England, Others, from 1780 to 1933 (22)

United Kingdom, England, Poor Relief, from 1 March 1874 to 31 March 1874 (118)

United Kingdom, England, Properties, from 1628 to 1677 (200)

United Kingdom, England, Religious, from 12 April 1762 to 5 April 1863 (1,021)

United Kingdom, England, Residences, 1905 (9)

Totals by Century

1500s (2)

1600s (110)

1700s (535) 16.7%

1800s (1,592) 49.7%

1900s (221) 6.9%

Record Types (59)

Vital Records, Death Records, Burial Records (706)

Religious Records, Baptism Records (629)

Vital Records, Marriage Records (528)

Voting Records, Voting Registers (492)

Legal Records, Property Records, Land Estate Records, Land Estate Tax Records (438)

Religious Records, Parish Records (292)

Government Records, Tax Records, Tax Assessment Records (175)

Legal Records, Court Records (128)

Legal Records, Court Records, Probate Records (125)

School Records, School Enrollment Records, School Admission Registers (110)

Legal Records, Property Records, Rent Records (104)

Religious Records, Churchwarden Records (97)

Legal Records, Property Records, Land Records (86)

Religious Records, Poor Rate Records (86)

Government Records, Tax Records, Rate Books (56)

Business Records, Sale Records (44)

Government Records, Overseer Records (44)

Government Records, Overseer Records, Overseer Accounts (40)

Business Records, Employment Records, Personnel Files (39)

Legal Records, Court Records, Court Orders (33)

Vital Records, Death Records, Cemetery Records, Burial Registers (31)

Legal Records, Property Records (30)

Business Records (17)

Reference Materials, History Records (16)

Government Records, Public Records (16)

Government Records, Poor Law Records, Almshouse Records (9)

Religious Records, Poor House Records (9)

Reference Materials, Historical Geographies (8)

Vital Records, Death Records (7)

Vital Records, Death Records, Cemetery Records, Gravestone Transcription Records (7)

Genealogies (7)

Religious Records, Poor Relief Records (7)

Miscellaneous Records, Society Records (7)

Periodicals, Directories (6)

Legal Records, Property Records, Land Records, Land Assessment Records (6)

Business Records, Occupation Records (6)

Government Records, Poor Law Records, Poor Law Settlement Records (6)

Religious Records, Religious Marriage Records (6)

Religious Records, Baptism Records, Christening Records (4)

Government Records, Oath Rolls (4)

Government Records, Tax Records, Valuation Records (4)

Religious Records, Bishop Transcript Records (3)

Periodicals, Directories, City Directories (3)

Legal Records, Property Records, Land Records, Freeholder Records (3)

Genealogies, Heraldry Records (2)

Miscellaneous Records (2)

Legal Records, Court Records, Property Settlement Records (2)

Legal Records, Court Records, Bastardy Records, Bastardy Declarations (2)

Government Records, Nobility Records (2)

Voting Records, Voter Lists (2)

Vital Records, Death Records, Cemetery Records (1)

Vital Records, Death Records, Cemetery Records, Grave Registers (1)

Genealogies, Family Histories, Family History Record Indexes (1)

Legal Records, Court Records, Probate Records, Probate Indexes (1)

Government Records, Poor Law Records, Parish Poor Law Records (1)

Government Records, Town Records (1)

Government Records, Poor Law Records (1)

Reference Materials (1)

Natural Disasters: Present, Past and Future

I write and talk a lot about the effects Mother Nature has and has had on people and communities. You can read my list of published articles and books on this site here. My presentations are summarized here. I also try to maintain a bibliography of books and articles about the relationships of natural phenomena and family history. You can see the reading list here.

We are constantly bombarded (or so it seems lately) with news headlines and opinion pieces about natural disasters around the world, in many cases because of their purported connection with climate change. Differing opinions exist that events that we are observing now, around the world, are unique in terms of intensity, history and their impact on human settlements.

Many are related to short and long-term weather patterns: droughts, heat waves (the polar vortex in the winter), floods, storms, wildfires, etc. Other disasters that are part of the Earth’s normal geological processes include earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions and tsunamis. All, of course, can cause distress and mayhem to people. As they have done for eons!

A short list of recent major events includes:

·         Drought in Western Canada, Western USA and around the world

·         Earthquakes in Japan, Russia, USA

·         Floods in New York and New Jersey (and Algeria, Australia, Bolivia, China, the Congo, Jordan, Nigeria, USA

·         Glacier collapse in Switzerland

·         Storms (including hurricanes and tornadoes) in Australia, Canada, Egypt, Kuwait, the Philippines, Tunisia, UK, USA

·         Wildfires in the Southeast Europe, Canada, Korea, USA

·         Volcanic eruptions in Iceland, Indonesia, Russia

News reports and some studies state that events are getting worse – in frequency, intensity and regional scope. But these comments only relate to a few past decades, not to the overall historical record.

The costs associated with damage from natural disasters have reached record levels. But they are mainly in areas where there are large populations and highly developed infrastructure. Would anyone doubt that the relative cost of the drought and fires in Europe in 1540 or 1842 would be much different on a per capita basis?

Our records of natural events, including written historical documents, only go back a few hundred years, in most regions much less time. For example, you can read about major storms in millions of newspaper articles going back to the early 18^th century.

Geological and geographical records show major catastrophic events have occurred regularly in past centuries and over hundreds of millions of years.

Regarding family history studies, it is informative to look at what is going on in the modern world to appreciate how such events may have affected our ancestors, who were not likely to have been as well prepared or warned about impending natural disasters.

To take one example of the present and relate to outcomes in the past, we can look at the drought conditions plaguing western North America. The current ongoing megadrought began in 2000. Such dry periods have not been rare occurrences in this region.

The medieval era in western North America was also characterized by widespread and regionally severe, sustained droughts. Proxy data, primarily in the form of tree rings, indicate decades-long periods of increased aridity illustrated as peaks on the graph and shown as red on the map from AD 1150 across the central and western U.S.

In the Colorado and Sacramento River basins, reconstructions show long periods of persistently below average river flows during several intervals including much of the 9^th, 12^th, and 13^th centuries.

Other proxy records include the position of tree lines, melting of glaciers and the types of chironomids present. Chironomids are a distinct group of lake flies whose populations and types can be correlated with specific climatic conditions.

All these proxies are consistent in supporting periods of elevated warmth in the medieval period that coincide with periods of severe and widespread drought. The driest episode was in the mid-12^th century and was more extensive and persistent than any modern drought experienced.

One of the casualties of the long drought was the collapse of the Anasazi or Ancestral Pueblo society that had thrived for hundreds of years in the southwest part of North America. A series of megadroughts of the 10th to 13th centuries finally took their toll on the residents and forced them to move.

More recent droughts that may have impacted our ancestors, possibly droving them to migrate, that we can learn about in published records and family stories include: the 1930s Dust Bowl; the Great Plains droughts in the 1890s, 1870s and 1860s; central Europe in the 1840s; 1790s in Australia; 1760s in the British Isles; early 1600s in the American colonies; and the mid-16^th century in Europe.

Drought is a normal, recurrent feature of climate that occurs in virtually all climate zones. Further to that thought, droughts have occurred virtually every year someplace and megadroughts have been experienced at least once per century, not uncommonly more frequently. The Earth will certainly continue to experience them in the future.

One wonders if residents living in the dry southwest region now could move, would they?

 

References and Data Sources

Ancestral Puebloans https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancestral_Puebloans

Southwestern North American megadrought https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southwestern_North_American_megadrought

The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) is a map released every Thursday, showing where drought is and how bad it is across the U.S. and its territories.  https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap.aspx

The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) is a multi-agency partnership that coordinates current drought monitoring, forecasting, planning, and information internationally and also historically. https://www.drought.gov/international

The North American Drought Monitor (NADM) is a cooperative effort between drought experts in Canada, Mexico and the United States to monitor drought across the continent on an ongoing basis. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/nadm/maps

The Global Drought Information System (GDIS) is a tool for visualizing drought related data across the globe. https://gdis-noaa.hub.arcgis.com/

The Canadian Drought Monitor (CDM) is Canada's official source for the monitoring and reporting of drought nationally. https://agriculture.canada.ca/en/agricultural-production/weather/canadian-drought-monitor

Copernicus is an EU program aimed at developing European drought information services based on satellite Earth Observation and in situ (non-space) data. https://drought.emergency.copernicus.eu/